China’s demographic dividend—a population make-up with a large proportion of working-age people—will soon reverse, turning into a demographic ‘tax.’ Moreover China will soon reach the Lewis Turning Point, bringing a spike in urban wages. Ambitious social policy to address demographic challenges is proposed to maintain economic growth.
Ethnic relations, rarely a bed of roses anywhere, have become tinder-dry in China. While outnumbered by the 91% Han majority, non-Han people populate wide areas seen by central authorities as strategically vital and economically promising. Discussion among liberal reformers is switching away from policies of ethnic privilege, and toward ethnic inclusion.
Despite its now notorious associations, it is too early to ring the curtains on the Chongqing model. Points in its favour include the economic role of the city as the sparkplug for developing China’s south and west, the rare talent at the helm of Mayor Huang Qifan (rather than Party Secretary Bo Xilai), and the reality of the social problems it addresses. The 'stretching of political space' it has achieved is badly needed. It is part of a pattern with a series other pilot schemes, and is likely to be repeated with modifications.
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